Celebrating the Incremental Changes
“Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.”
Bill Gates
I thought of this quote this week as I digested the usual flood of doom and gloom on climate, the economy, politics.
Yet, despite all of this - the headlines of things not moving fast enough, of politics getting in the way, the that will ‘never’ happen - on April 30, the state of California ran on 100% clean energy for the first time.
There’s a lot of talk these days about people fleeing California.
The reality is that the state still holds the fifth largest economy in the world, placing it just behind Germany but ahead of the UK, India, and France.
What about those fast-growing states in the sunbelt that are grabbing all the headlines? California’s economy is 67% larger than that of Texas and 77% larger than Florida’s.
The state accounts for 14.6% of total US GDP and almost 12% of the US population.
Now, are there caveats to how this number was determined? Of course.
In fact, this 100% number does not include nuclear or large hydroelectric.
With these included it produced over 100% of its requirements, but shipped this power to neighboring states, highlighting a need for increased battery storage.
Also, it didn’t shut down its natural gas plants but that power was sent to other states as well.
+ Did California actually hit 97 percent renewables in April? Yes and No. - Canary Media
+ California runs on 100% clean energy for the first time, with solar dominating - Electrek
+ If California were a country - Bull Oak Capital
Analysts and pundits will debate the stats, the cost, the reliability, the temporary nature of this moment.
Indeed, our energy grid still relies on fossil fuels, but the economics have changed.
There are very few instances where investment in new fossil fuel capacity makes sense.
Stories like this are popping up with increasing regularity across the globe and are evidence of the work being done over time, spanning friendly and obstructionist political regimes, booming economic times as well as recessions.
We should all be celebrating this technological and political achievement.
EU’s Energy Transition Accelerates
Of course, the world’s second largest economy, the European Union, just got a serious wake-up call about the strategic insecurity of its energy system.
Suddenly, the cost of inaction has greatly surpassed the investment in the future.
“We must become independent from Russian oil, coal and gas. We simply cannot rely on a supplier who explicitly threatens us. We need to act now to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices, diversify our gas supply for next winter and accelerate the clean energy transition. The quicker we switch to renewables and hydrogen, combined with more energy efficiency, the quicker we will be truly independent and master our energy system.”
Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President
+ Joint European action for more affordable, secure and sustainable energy - EC
The energy transition has been kicked into hyperdrive and in ten years, an entire continent will be disconnected from a major fossil fuel producing neighbor.
Armchair quarterbacks will continue to say it can’t be done as the rest just simply get on with the work of making the incremental changes.
So what does this have to do with the oceans or ESG investing?
Well, the headlines here reflect the same tendency of news to focus on the trees at the expense of the forest - monthly inflows and outflows, not the annual trends; the insufficient urgency instead of the accumulation of successes that are moving the ball forward; the bumps along the way instead of the miraculous achievement despite the political and economic hurdles.
A Growing Seaweed Economy
Seeds are being planted now for where the ocean economy will be in ten years, and it is exciting!
There will be a generation of small seaweed farmers that line the coasts, making a good living off the ocean while sequestering carbon, strengthening our food supply, and producing a sustainable feedstock for everything from fertilizers and animal feed to bioplastics.
+ The Case for seaweed subsidies - The Fish Site
+ Why seaweed is a natural fit for replacing certain plastics - Popular Science
Human-centric Cities Powered by Renewables
Cities everywhere will be returned to the people as infrastructure supports alternative forms of transportation free of the noise and fumes from internal combustion engines.
Major cities on the East Coast will increasingly be fueled by offshore wind energy.
🌳🚲👇 Creating the future of mobility needs a strong vision and political will. 🎥 @otucis
Hard to decarbonize industries like shipping and cement will be well on their way towards net zero.
"Our perspective is five or 10 years from now, it will be unacceptable to many of our customers to have that carbon footprint in their global supply chain. So we really see this as a strategic imperative to solve this problem,"
-Morten Bo Christiansen, head of decarbonization at Maersk
+ Your climate goals may have a maritime shipping problem - SPGlobal
The ESG Debate Will Rage
Whether under the old CSR label, the new ESG one, or some future acronym, financing mechanisms tied to sustainability will come to dominate new issuances of debt and equity.
+ European green, social, sustainable bond sales could reach 1.6 trillion euros in 2026, study says - Reuters
Debate will rage over whether these changes are happening fast enough, but not over whether they are happening.