Geopolitical Oceans - Elections in 2024
From the smallest nations to the largest, oceans will be on the ballot.
“Starting with Taiwan in January and running through the US presidential election in November, the year will bring 40 national elections—a busy lineup even in calmer political times. Bloomberg Economics calculates that voters in countries representing 41% of the world’s population and 42% of its gross domestic product have a chance to elect new leaders next year.”
+2024 is election year in 40 countries - Bloomberg
“Combined, these elections will cover a population of roughly 2.3 billion people and a GDP of approximately $42 trillion.”
+Four 2024 elections will shape the second half-decade - Stratfor
If you think the early election news and debates here in the US are already overwhelming, you haven’t seen anything yet.
Not everyone pays attention to elections happening around the world, and I certainly understand why. I don’t even want to watch my own country’s election. Muddling through my local ballots last week took way longer than I expected.
But these things don’t happen in a vacuum. Despite the current trend towards deglobalization, outside forces can and will impact our cozy bubbles at home.
2024 will be an insane year for national elections, and it isn’t just the big ones that will matter to watchers of the ocean economy. Election prognostications and analysis aren’t really my thing, but I will be watching to see whether these ocean issues that are starting to gain attention make it to the national stage.
Oceans on the Ballot in 2024
While I don’t expect many of these leaders to mention the ‘blue economy’ explicitly, the issues related to our oceans are certainly at play. After all, the oceans are engrained in our economies more than we can imagine.
Ocean issues are economic issues, security issues, and food issues. They go beyond just the environment and can’t be ignored.
In most cases, the countries hosting elections next year have longer presidential terms than the four years the US president gets. These leaders will see these nations through the end of the decade. All of those 2030 goals are in the purview of these next administrations - for better or worse.
The battle for resources is implicit in our oceans. Everything from seabed mining to protecting EEZs and fish stocks, shipping, and trade routes are at stake. Budget talks on military resources will include new tech and old - drone boats and icebreakers.
I know worrying about 40 elections when we’ve (the US, for me) got a mess here at home seems like enough to make you cancel your internet and move to a cabin in the woods, but here are just a few that I think are interesting from the blue economy perspective.
Palau, Mauritius and The Future of Seabed Mining
In 2021, the tiny island nation of Nauru triggered a round of debates and rulings on the future of seabed mining at the UN’s International Seabed Authority. It’s hard to think of a more obscure place and equally obscure council somehow grabbing such international attention due to the implications of their collective actions.
But the issue wasn’t really resolved. The can was kicked down the road.
+From Nigeria to Nauru - Emerging Oceans
In 2024, elections in Mauritius and Palau embody the future of this issue. Seabed mining will continue to play out in obscure courts as well as the courts of public opinion, and these two nations are taking opposing stands on the issue.
“We believe it is not worth the risk,” he said. “We ask all of you to support that... deep-sea mining increases the vulnerability of the seabed floor and marine life.”
-Palau President Surangel Whipps
+Not worth the risk; Palau, Fiji call for deep sea mining moratorium - Reuters
“Aside from Mauritius, there are four other states prospecting for deep sea minerals in the Indian ocean: India, China, South Korea and Germany.”
+Mauritius makes plans for deep sea mining in the Indian Ocean - Save the High Seas
Panama - Where a Small Economy Bottlenecks Global Trade
The countries already most affected by a changing climate are often portrayed as small island nations that rise just feet above sea level. However, these places are easy to ignore because they are so isolated and far away. More importantly, they don’t often contribute much to the global economy.
They simply don’t stand in the way.
However, what happens when a changing climate impacts a vital industry to a nation, AND this industry or infrastructure is also critical to the global flow of goods to larger, wealthier countries?
“The canal generates about $2 billion a year, and approximately 40% ($800 million) goes to Panama’s General Treasury each year. The proceeds contribute to around 3% of Panama’s annual GDP.”
+How much does Panama earn from the canal - Maritime Post
More importantly than Panama’s economy (in a geopolitical sense), the drought in Panama affects global trade.
“Drought in Panama is a real problem,” Habben Jansen (chief executive, Hapag-Lloyd) said, warning that capacity was likely to be down by 30 to 40 percent next year. “We’ll have to find solutions,” he said, adding that the company would be rerouting some ships via the Suez Canal.
+Hapag-Lloyd hit by downward spiral in freight rates - FT
So, how does this play into local politics? How will this issue in Panama spill over to other elections? Will this be the first time people other than geopolitical wonks know what’s happening in this country?
I admit I’m all questions and no answers. But I’ll be watching Panama’s election a little closer for clues.
Taiwan and the South China Sea
It’s hard to think of a country that punches so far above its size in the geopolitical world than Taiwan. It is the poster child for the risks of a globally integrated world. It kicks off the year with an election in January.
From semiconductors to artificial islands and the law of the sea, this one has it all.
Ocean defense and monitoring will continue to be a huge issue globally, not just in the South China Sea. Protecting ocean assets is taking center stage from the Arctic to the Caribbean.
But Taiwan is a flashpoint for these issues, and few countries are well prepared.
The war in Ukraine has shown what the future of war at sea will look like. Countries are gearing up with investment in everything from drone boats to more traditional naval ships and even icebreakers.
This issue will be center stage in the US elections in November. It will pull in all of its neighbors.
+Japan is gearing up for it’s first major military upgrade since WWII. - Reuters
+Surge and Swarm: How China’s ships control the South China Sea - WSJ
Indonesia Tries to Stay Out Of It
Indonesia will host the world’s largest single-day election while trying to distance itself from the tension in the South China Sea.
“Indonesia is not a party to the [South China Sea] dispute,” said Indonesian President Joko Widodo in a forum at Brookings today, “but we have legitimate interests in peace and stability there.”
“We believe that the sea [is] a public good. We reject any attempt by any state to control and dominate the sea and turn it into an arena for strategy competition … we need to talk closely to ensure good order at sea, prevent incidents, and ensure freedom of navigation.”
+Indonesia on South China Sea, Environment, Islam, and Democracy - Brookings
Will the next president feel the same way?
While Indonesia tries to remain a bystander in the South China Sea, others, like the Philippines (no election next year), aren’t so lucky.
+China, a US ally and the battle over an old rusty ship - WSJ
Russia, India, the EU Parliament, and the US
Admittedly, bringing attention to these other elections is a bit wonky. But it’s hard to overstate the effect of the elections next year in Russia, India, the EU Parliament, and the US.
There are people out there who know the ins and outs of these elections, so that’s not what I’ll get into here. Just pointing out that Russia, India, the EU, and the US will all be in election cycles is enough to ruin anyone’s weekend (also not my goal, but there it is).
Vladimir Putin has already declared himself in the race in Russia and will undoubtedly win. So, no change in tone, rhetoric, or strategy is expected.
India, the world’s largest democracy, is expected to reelect Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is still popular after a decade in power.
In the EU, 400 million people will vote for representatives in a bloc-wide election to fill all 720 parliamentary seats. The results will measure the rise of right-wing politics at national levels.
And, of course, this leaves us with November and 2024’s Biggest Horror Show.